Paul Saffo, at The Institute For The Future, talks about his 30 year rule

Paul Saffo, at The Institute For The Future, talks about his 30 year rule. That usually in the first decade of a new technology, as it comes out of the lab, not a lot of understanding about it, there’s not an audience prepared for it. Often, that first wave fails. The second decade, a newer technology emerges, people are becoming more aware of it. It starts to take hold, but even there, there are still a number of failures. Then it’s the third wave, or the third decade, where by that time, if it’s a successful technology at all, it becomes commonplace. People accept it as part of their everyday lives. That’s certainly the case of online. We were talking about online in the early eighties, but very few people knew what it was. The technology was very slow